News Recap • Week 18 2025

Check the news below and make sure to visit my latest Market Recap as well.

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Macro

• The latest US non-farm payrolls data delivered a positive surprise with a 177,000 increase against the 133,000 forecast. The unemployment rate stayed unchanged at 4.2% and has now ranged between 4% and 4.3% for 12 consecutive months. The report was received positively by investors who sent US markets higher by around 1.5% on Friday. President Donald Trump was quick to call on the Fed to cut rates after the strong report.
• The US economy surprisingly shrank by 0.3% in Q1 of 2025 for its first quarter of negative growth in three years. Economists had expected a gain of 0.4%. However, the decline was largely driven by a 41.3% surge in imports which subtract from the GDP. That trend can be explained by front-running of impending tariffs and could normalize in coming quarters. The S&P also managed to close in the green after a big initial drop when the report came out.
• The latest PCE data from the US showed a significant cooling in inflation. The headline number fell from 2.7% in February to 2.3% in March while core dropped from 3% to 2.6%. The core reading is tied with June of last year for lowest number since the initial inflation spike in early 2020. However, the headline number was actually slightly higher than the 2.2% forecast.
• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index fell to -35.8 in April, the lowest since the beginning of the 2020 pandemic and the 2008-2009 financial crisis. It was also far lower than the -14.2 forecast.
• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday that the first new trade deal is done, although he didn’t elaborate on the details.
• Weekly jobless claims in the US rose to 241,000, 18,000 more than the prior week and 16,000 more than forecast.
• US private sector payrolls only increased by 62,000 in April, down from 147,000 in March and far below the consensus estimate for 120,000.
• China’s factory activity fell more than expected to a 16-month low in April. The official purchasing managers’ index is now in contraction territory with a reading of 49. Analysts attribute the slowdown to the escalating trade war between China and the US.
• China officials called for the US to show sincerity and be prepared to remove its unilateral tariffs if the countries were to begin negotiating a new trade deal. Additionally, China has reportedly created a list of US products to be exempt from the 125% tariffs otherwise imposed on imports from the US.
• Trump said on Thursday that any person or country who buys oil or petrochemicals from Iran will be barred from doing business with the US.
• Trump signed an executive order to ease the tariffs imposed on auto makers.
• The Consumer Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86 in April, lower than the 87.7 forecast. The expectations index fell to 54.4, its lowest level since 2011.
• Eurozone inflation was unchanged at 2.2% in April. Economists had expected it to tick down to 2.1%. Core inflation reaccelerated to 2.7% from 2.4% in March. Services inflation increased from 3.5% to 3.9%. Analysts point to the low headline inflation as an argument for the ECB to continue to lower interest rates.
• Inflation in Germany also came in at 2.2% in April, easing slightly from March but landing above the 2.1% forecast. Core inflation accelerated from 2.6% in March to 2.9% in April.
• The EU is reportedly preparing to present a new trade proposal to US negotiators next week.
• The UK’s FTSE 100 index on Friday saw its 15th consecutive day of gains, its longest win streak ever. The index dates back to 1988.
• The majority of S&P 500 stocks (52%) have outperformed the index year-to-date. That’s a significant improvement from the 32% and 29% seen in 2024 and 2023.
• With the S&P 500 down almost 8%, Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office are the worst start of a president’s 4-year term since the 1970s.
• The Liberal Party won the Canadian election, setting up party leader Mark Carney to remain Prime Minister after taking over from Justin Trudeau less than two months ago.

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Other

• Take-Two delayed the launch of GTA 6, arguably the most anticipated video game of all time. The launch date was pushed from the fall of 2025 to May 26, 2026. The stock fell 6.66% after the news on Friday but is still up 19% for the year.
• Microsoft surpassed Apple to become the world’s most valuable company after its strong earnings report earlier this week. The company closed the week with a market cap of $3.235 trillion, $151 billion higher than Apple’s and $442 billion above Nvidia.
• Novo Nordisk said it will offer its weight loss drug Wegovy through tele-health providers Hims & Hers, Ro, and LifeMD. Shares of Hims & Hers jumped 23% on the news and gained more than 45% for the week.
• IBM will invest $150 billion in the US over the next five years, including in quantum computer production facilities.
• Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said that as much as 30% of the company’s code is now written by AI.

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Earnings

• Apple delivered a strong fiscal Q2 earnings report on Thursday. Revenue came in at $95.4 billion with EPS of $1.65, both beating expectations for $94.66 and $1.63 respectively. iPhone, Mac, and iPad revenue all came in above forecast. Services revenue, which is almost twice the size of Mac and iPad revenue combined, came in a little light though. CEO Tim Cook also said it was very difficult to predict what will happen beyond June because of the tariff uncertainty. Shares fell 3.74% after the report on Friday.
• Microsoft delivered a solid beat with revenue and EPS coming in at $70.07 billion and $3.46, above expectations for $68.42 billion and $3.22 respectively. The company also raised its revenue guidance to between $73.15 and $74.25 billion, above the consensus forecast for $72.26 billion. Expected Azure growth was another bright spot with the forecast now being 34% to 35% compared with a consensus of 31.5%. Shares rallied 7.63% after the report and gained more than 11% for the week. This move also meant that Microsoft became the world’s most valuable company once again.
• Amazon reported a big Q1 earnings beat, making $1.59 per share vs $1.36 expected. Revenue also came in slightly above forecast. Amazon Web Services revenue missed though, landing at $29.3 billion vs $29.42 billion expected. The company now expects Q2 operating income to be between $13 and $17.5 billion, below the $17.64 billion consensus forecast. Shares fell marginally after the report on Friday.
• Meta reported earnings of $6.43 per share vs $5.28 expected on revenue of $42.31 billion vs $41.40 billion expected. Sales and net income rose 16% and 35% respectively year over year. Meta guided to Q2 sales between $42.5 and $45.5 billion, in line with analysts’ expectations. It also lowered the range of its 2025 total expenses. The stock jumped 4.23% on Thursday after the report and another 4.34% on Friday, gaining more than 9% for the week.
• Qualcomm exceeded expectations for both revenue and earnings in its fiscal Q2. But while the company said that it doesn’t expect any material impact from tariffs, the Q2 revenue guidance was lighter than consensus. The stock fell almost 9% after the report and remains 39% off of its 2024 peak.
• Berkshire Hathaway on Saturday reported a 14% drop in operating earnings, translating to $4.47 in earnings per share. That was well below analysts’ estimates. Much of the decline was due to a 48.6% plunge in insurance-underwriting profit. The main headline of the shareholder meeting, however, was the news that Warren Buffett will be stepping down as CEO by the end of the year. He has asked the board to let Greg Abel, who was designated as CEO successor in 2021, take his position. Abel has been at Berkshire for 25 years. While the move has been expected for a while, the announcement still came as a surprise to the audience and even to Abel himself.
• Coca-Cola’s earnings and revenue topped estimates, fueled by demand growth in India, China, and Brazil. The company also reiterated its full-year forecast despite global trade conflicts, saying its operations are “primarily local”. The stock was volatile after the report on Tuesday but ended the day with a modest 0.78% gain.
• McDonald’s reported revenue of $5.96 billion, below estimates for $6.09 billion. Earnings per share came in 1 cent above expectations at $2.67. The company’s US same store sales shrank 3.6% during the first quarter, its worst drop since the pandemic-driven plunge in Q2 of 2020. Shares fell 1.78% after the report on Thursday.
• Starbucks reported adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share, lower than the 49 cents expected. Revenue also came in light at $8.76 vs $8.82 billion expected. The operating margin fell from 12.8% to 6.9% as the company invests in its turnaround, one that CEO Brian Niccol says is gaining “momentum”. The stock ended 5.66% lower on Wednesday after the report but had been down as much as 11% at the lows of the day. It even managed to claw back the losses during Thursday and Friday.
• General Motors earned $2.78 adjusted per share and beat expectations for $2.74 adjusted. Revenue came in at $44.02 billion, almost $1 billion above forecast. The company did however say it’s reassessing its full-year guidance and will suspend any additional stock buybacks amid expected cost increases and industry uncertainty caused by Trump’s trade policies. Shares fell 0.64% after the report on Tuesday and extended losses on Wednesday.
• Spotify reported a bad earnings miss, making just $1.13 per share vs the $2.49 consensus forecast. Revenue also came in light at $4.41 billion vs $4.77 billion expected. However, the company said it added 5 million new premium subscribers, easily beating expectations for just 2 million. It now has 268 subscribers in total and tallied 678 million monthly active users in the first quarter. The stock fell 3.48% on Tuesday after the report but then rallied more than 11% during the following three days to briefly nudge a new all-time high on Friday.
• Airbnb’s Q1 revenue and earnings came in line with expectations. Revenue increased 6% from a year ago while net income declined. The company issued weak guidance, citing softness in the US due to broader economic uncertainties. Shares initially fell on Friday but ended the day with a 1% gain.
• Snap reported a slight beat in terms of revenue and daily active users. The latter came in at 460 million worldwide. However, the company pulled its Q2 guidance due to macroeconomic uncertainty. The stock plummeted 12.43% after the report but regained much of it on Friday.
• Duolingo beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Earnings per share came in at $0.72 vs $0.50 expected while revenue landed at $230.7 million vs $223.15 million expected. Furthermore, the company gave guidance above forecast as well. Shares surged 21.6% to a new all-time high after the report on Friday.
• Roblox beat expectations and raised its guidance. Shares rose 2.91% after the report on Thursday and added another 7.38% on Friday.
• Block, formerly known as Square, reported revenue well below expectations and cut its full-year guidance due to macro uncertainty. Shares plummeted more than 20% after the report on Friday and are now down close to 84% from its 2021 peak.
• Reddit reported 61% revenue growth year over year and delivered a big earnings beat with EPS of $0.13 vs $0.01 expected. The stock initially rose more than 5% in after hours and early trading on Friday but ended the day with a 4.18% decline.
• Etsy reported revenue above expectations but fell short on the earnings front. Gross merchandise sales continue to lag year over year. The company also took a $101.7 million hit as it sold of Reverb, its musical instrument marketplace. The stock dropped 5.74% on Wednesday after the report.
• Europe’s largest lender, HSBC, reported a big Q1 revenue and profit beat. Both metrics fell from a year earlier though. Shares rose 2% after the report.
• Deutsche Bank posted a 39% jump in profit. Revenue grew 10% year over year to €8.52 billion. The stock jumped more than 4% after the report on Tuesday.
• Barclay’s reported pre-tax profit growth of 11% year over year, coming in at £2.7 billion and beating expectations for £2.49 billion. Shares closed slightly lower after the report.
• UBS beat bottom line expectations but sees risk of negative impact from Trump’s tariff policy. The stock reaction was muted.
• Samsung reported revenue of 79.1 trillion Korean won ($55.4 billion), beating expectations for 78.1 trillion. Operating profit came in at 6.7 trillion won, 300 billion above forecast. The company cited macroeconomic uncertainty as a near-term risk to the business. Shares traded lower after the report.