News Recap • Week 21 2025

Check the news below and make sure to visit my latest Market Recap as well.

‍

Macro

• Donald Trump on Friday said he’s “recommending a straight 50% tariff on the EU. This comes after Trump complained that trade negotiations have stalled. He later added that he’s not looking for a deal with the EU. Markets initially took a plunge on the news but rebounded throughout the day. (CNBC)
• Trump’s ‘big, beautiful bill’ passed the House with the narrowest-possible majority and will now proceed to the Senate. The bill consists of a series of tax cuts and is seen to increase the budget deficit even further. It also appears that Trump has already abandoned his fiscal austerity mission. Bond yields and gold spiked while the dollar and US equities fell when the bill was passed. (CNBC)
• Earlier on Friday, Trump said that Apple must pay a 25% tariff on iPhones made outside of the US. Shares of Apple naturally fell on the news. (CNBC)
• US and China senior officials held their first official call since a meeting in January and agreed to keep lines of communication open in an effort to make a new trade deal. (CNBC)
• Sales of previously owned homes in the US declined 0.5% from March to April to a seasonally adjusted, annualized rate of 4 million units. This was the slowest April pace since 2009. Sales were down 2% from April last year, far below economists’ expectations for a 2.7% increase. There were 1.45 million homes for sale at the end of April which represents a 4.4-month supply at the current sales pace. This was the highest level in five years but still well below the 6-month supply that’s considered to be a balanced market. (CNBC)
• The EU and the UK made a new deal that strengthens the relationship between the two parties, involving a range of matters including security, energy, trade, travel, and fisheries. (CNBC)
• The UK’s annual inflation rate spiked to 3.5% in April, more than the 3.3% forecast and much higher than the 2.8% and 2.6% recorded in February and March. (CNBC)
• China cut its 1-year loan prime rate from 3.1% to 3.0% and the 5-year LPR from 3.6% to 3.5%. This was the first rate cut in seven months. (CNBC)
• China’s retail sales rose 5.1% from a year earlier in April but missed the 5.5% growth forecast. Industrial output, on the other hand, rose 6.1% vs expectations for 5.5%. (CNBC)
• New home prices in China’s 70 major cities dropped 4.6% year over year in April. Existing home prices dropped 6.8%, continuing the trend that’s essentially been in place since 2019. (The Kobeissi Letter)
• China ran a record 4-month budget deficit from January to April this year, driven by a tariff-ignited spending blitz. (Bloomberg)
• Japan is sticking to its demand for the US to eliminate all tariffs in the two countries’ bilateral trade negotiations. (Reuters)
• Japan’s factory activity contracted in May for the 11th month in a row. Service sector activity did stay in expansionary territory though. (Reuters)
• Japan’s exports to the US fell 1.8% in April from a year ago. Overall exports growth slowed for a second straight month. (CNBC)
• Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he disagrees with the idea of funding tax cuts with Japanese government bonds, adding that the nation’s financial situation is worse than Greece’s. (Bloomberg)
• Japan’s farm minister was fired after he said that he’s never had to buy rice because he gets it from his supporters. (CNBC)
• Elon Musk shared on X a realization that accelerating GDP growth in the US is essential and that only radical improvements in productivity can save the country. (X)

‍

Other

• Bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $112,000 on Thursday, surpassing its $109,300 peak from January. The last leg up came as US equities dropped, indicating that Bitcoin for now is moving more in line with gold and other dollar debasement bets.
• Elon Musk confirmed that Tesla plans to have robotaxis on the streets of Austin, Texas, by the end of June. (CNBC)
• More Musk: He committed to leading Tesla for at least the next five years after many investors and analysts had started questioning his dedication to the company. (CNBC)
• Last Musk: Somewhat related to the above, Elon Musk also said that he’ll be spending “a lot less” on future campaign donations. Some see this as a sign that Musk is further distancing himself from the Trump administration. (CNBC)
• OpenAI acquired io Products, the AI device startup founded by Apple design legend Jony Ive, for $6.5 billion. The deal is all in stock and by far the largest one ever made by OpenAI. It’s a staggering price tag considering that io is fully pre-revenue and doesn’t have any (publicly available) products yet. (CNBC).
• Hinge Health went public on Thursday and closed the day 17% higher than its IPO price. It added another 6.92% on Friday. (CNBC)
• Fenix International Ltd is in talks with the Forest Road investor group to sell OnlyFans at a valuation of around $8 billion. (Reuters)
• Donald Trump floated the idea of taking Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac public. He’s by no means the first one to do so. (Bloomberg)
• Trump cleared the merger between U.S. Steel and the Japanese Nippon Steel. The deal had previously been blocked on national security grounds. (CNBC)
• Google launched ‘Google AI Ultra’, a new $250 per month VIP AI subscription. (CNBC)

‍

Earnings

• Target reported Q1 revenue and earnings below expectations and partially blamed uncertainty surrounding tariffs, poor consumer sentiment, and backlash to its rollback of DEI initiatives. Shares dropped 5.21% on Wednesday after the report and are down almost 65% from its 2021 all-time high. (CNBC)
• Home Depot delivered revenue above expectations but missed on earnings. The company maintained its full-year guidance and said it won’t raise prices due to tariffs. The stock initially rose after the report on Tuesday but closed the day with a 0.61% loss. (CNBC)
• Ralph Lauren beat expectations for fiscal Q4 revenue and profits. The company also said it’s considering price hikes to deal with tariffs. Shares rose after the report. (Reuters)