News Recap • Week 3 2025

US inflation data stole the show and sent markets soaring by coming in below expectations. The big financial companies kicked off earnings season and crushed it once again. Oh, and then Donald Trump launched his own memecoin.

I wrote about all of those stories here (along with a market recap):

• ‍Market Recap • Week 3 2025‍
• Inflation Cools, Market Rips‍
• Financials Crushed Q4 Earnings‍
• $TRUMP Just Changed the Face of Crypto Forever

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Main headlines

Macro

• Inflation in the US came in slightly cooler than expected and the markets absolutely loved it. Read my full breakdown here.
• The budget deficit in the US is now 40% higher than a year ago.
• China’s GDP expanded by 5.4% in Q4 of 2024, beating estimates of 5% growth and the previous quarter’s 4.6% growth rate. The strong Q4 brought the full-year growth rate to 5%, in line with the country’s official target.
• China’s exports and imports both beat expectations in December by a large margin. Exports grew 10.7% in US dollar terms, well above the 7.3% forecast and 6.7% growth rate in November. The Chinese Hang Seng index fell 1% on Monday after the news but rallied throughout the week for a total gain of 2.73%.
• The annual inflation rate in India came in at 5.22% in December, slightly below forecast for 5.3%. It’s down for a second straight month since hitting a 14-month high at 6.21% in October. Just like in the US, lower inflation gives the central bank more room to cut interest rates and boost the economy, something that’s much needed in India after a recent slowdown in growth. The Indian stock market still fell for the week though.
• Key members of the European Central Bank plan further rate cuts to achieve the 2% inflation target by midsummer.
• Inflation in the UK fell to 2.5% in December, lower than the 2.6% forecast. It was unchanged from November. Core inflation fell from 3.5% to 3.2%. The Bank of England is largely expected to cut interest rates from 4.75% to 4.5% at its next meeting on February 6.
• UK’s GDP grew by just 0.1% in November. Economists had expected 0.2%. It was still better than the 0.1% declines measured in October and November though. Combined with the cooling inflation reported a day prior, the Bank of England seems set for a rate cut in February.
• China’s electric vehicle market is expected to face a sharp slowdown in 2025. HSBC analysts forecast 20% growth this year compared to a 42% surge in 2024.
• Joe Biden announced that his administration will forgive another $4 billion in student debt for 150,000 borrowers.
• Germany economy ended with a 0.2% contraction in 2024, its second consecutive yearly economic slowdown.
• Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire and hostage deal.

Other

• Quantum computing stocks took another hit on Monday when Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg said the technology is “still quite a ways off from being a very useful paradigm.” He also said he’s not an expert on the topic though, but investors seemed to take his words quite seriously. This comes after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s sobering comments about the technology last week.
• ... But then on Tuesday, Nividia announced a Quantum Day at its GTC conference in March.
• ... And Wednesday provided even more good news when Microsoft announced its directive urging businesses to get “quantum-ready” in 2025. Naturally, quantum stocks soared on the news.
• The TikTok saga continued over the weekend. First up, Perplexity AI made a bid to merge with TikTok on Saturday. Next, Donald Trump said he will “most likely” give the company a 90-day extension to avoid having to shut down operations in the US. None of this stopped Apple and Google from removing TikTok from their app stores on Saturday night though. That only lasted a few hours though, before Donald Trump provided assurance of the 90-day extension which allowed TikTok to restore services in the US.
• Google is facing a major probe in the UK, assessing whether the company has “strategic market status”.
• Elon Musk is the latest potential buyer of TikTok’s US operations, according to a report by Bloomberg.
• SEC charged Robinhood with securities violations and a $45 million fine. Shares rallied 5.5% on Tuesday after the news and another 14% before the end of the week.
• Lululemon, Abercrombie & Fitch, and American Eagle reported strong holiday sales and raised their Q4 guidance. Investors weren’t impressed.
• Moderna lowered its 2025 sales forecast by $1 billion to a range of $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion. Shares unsurprisingly plummeted 17% and are now down 93% since the covid peak in August 2021.
• Eli Lilly said demand for its obesity and diabetes drugs had not met expectations in 2024 and cut its revenue guidance accordingly. The company’s new guidance would still mark a 32% increase from the prior year though. Shares fell more than 6.5% after the news on Tuesday and ended the week at $725.72 per share, its lowest weekly close since April 2024.
• Boeing’s 2024 deliveries fell by about a third to 348 planes, less than half of competitor Airbus’ 766. Boeing shares fell 32% in 2024.
• The SEC sued Elon Musk over his acquisition of Twitter, claiming that he failed to file the proper disclosures.
• Infamous shortseller, Hindenburg Research, announced this week that it’s shutting down without providing any specific reason.
• Trading platform eToro is planning to IPO this year at a $5 billion valuation.
• Bumble founder Whitney Wolfe Herd will return as CEO, taking over from Lidiane Jones who’s been at the helm for about a year. The stock initially jumped more than 8% after the news on Friday but closed the day down by 1.6%. It fell more than 94% from its IPO in February 2022 to the bottom in August last year.
• Apple shares took a hit after some concerning data about iPhone sales in China.
• Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic, Wegovy, and Rybelsus are all at the top of the list of drugs subject to price negotiations between manufacturers and Medicare. Novo shares fell more than 4% on Friday after the news and declined almost 9% for the week.

Earnings

• Target raised its Q4 sales guidance but not its profit outlook. Shares closed 1% lower after the report on Thursday.
• A bunch of big financial companies reported Q4 earnings. I wrote about them here.