News Recap • Week 8 2025

We got a mixed bag of macro data from around the world this week. Japan's economy is looking hot while China's is showing signs of recovery.

On the other hand, the US is looking a little dicey at the moment. I wrote about that here.

In addition to that, and all the news below, check out my latest Market Recap.

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Macro

• Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting confirmed continued concerns over inflation. The Fed would like to see inflation come down further before making any additional rate cuts. They’re also worried about the potential inflationary impact of tariffs. Furthermore, the Fed is discussing pausing its balance sheet run-off. The interest rate market barely changed its outlook on the news and the equity market reaction was muted.
• Japan’s GDP grew 0.7% quarter over quarter in Q4, much more than the 0.3% expected among economists. It grew 2.8% on an annualized basis, also well ahead of the 1% forecast.
• Japan’s headline inflation climbed to 4% in January, up from 3.6% in December. It’s now been above the central bank’s 2% target for 34 straight months. Core inflation rose to 3.2%, its highest since June 2023. Additional rate hikes seem more and more likely.
• UK inflation hit 3% in January, above analysts’ expectations for 2.8%. It’s now well above the 1.7% bottom in September and the 2% target. Core inflation jumped to 3.7%, up from 3.2% in December.
• Donald Trump said he may broaden the scope of US tariffs to include 25% on automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. Mexico, Japan, and Canada would be hit the hardest as the largest auto exporters to the US.
• Mergers and acquisitions in China saw a strong acceleration in Q4 last year. The trend is likely fueled by recent stimulus measures as well as preparation for a potential trade war with the US.
• The US and Russia had their first formal sit-down meeting since 2022 to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.
• Speaking of which, European leaders gathered in Paris on Monday for an emergency summit as they’re left out of negotiations between the US and Russia.
• NATO Chief Mark Rutte said on Saturday that the alliance would reach a new agreement for defense spending and that the spend will be much more than the current 2%. European defense stocks soared on the back of the statement.
• The People’s Bank of China held a range of different interest rates steady this week. Its 7-day rate was kept at 1.5% while the 1-year and 5-year LPRs were held at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively. Some economists expect the country to cut its main policy rate as soon as next month.
• Chinese President Xi Jinping showed support for the local tech sector and entrepreneurs, marking a big shift away from prior policies and giving a boost to the Chinese stock market.
• Australia’s central bank cut interest rates to 4.1% after holding them steady at 4.35% since November 2023.

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Other

• Microsoft on Wednesday announced its first quantum chip named Majorana 1. The new chip won’t be available to customers just yet but serves as an important step toward the company’s goal of having a million qubits on a chip. Microsoft stock had a muted reaction, rising 1.25% on the day. Quantum computing stocks D-Wave Quantum and Quantum Computing Inc. both rose around 8%.
• Apple revealed the iPhone 16e, its new budget-friendly phone powerful enough to run Apple Intelligence features.
• EV maker Nikola filed for bankruptcy protection after failing to secure funding to maintain operations. The stock plummeted 39% on the news to a new record low around 40 cents. It’s easily one of the worst-looking charts in the market.
• Bill Ackman raised his bid for Howard Hughes from $85 to $90 per share.
• Broadcom and Taiwan Semiconductor are considering a deal where they would split Intel’s chip design business and the company’s factories. Intel shares rallying 16% on the news.
• Nike and SKIMS introduced NikeSKIMS, a new brand targeting women. Nike rose more than 6% on the news.
• Elon Musk’s xAI launched Grok 3, its direct competitor to ChatGPT and similar apps.
• Coinbase said on Friday that the SEC has agreed to end its enforcement case from 2023, claiming that the company operated an unregistered securities exchange.

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Earnings

• Walmart topped estimates on both the top and bottom lines but warned about slowing growth. Shares fell 6.5% after the report and extended its losses on Friday, down around 9% for the week. This also marked the first quarter ever where Amazon surpassed Walmart on revenue.
• Berkshire Hathaway reported a massive 71% surge in Q4 operating profits. Operating earnings for the full year jumped 27% to $47.437 billion. The company’s cash pile topped $334 billion at the end of 2024.
• Etsy delivered a revenue miss in Q4 but beat earnings expectations by around 10%. Shares plummeted 10% after the report and trade 83% below their 2021 peak.
• SolarEdge reported a Q4 loss of $287 million, sharply down year over year. However, revenue beat expectations. The stock rallied almost 16% after the report on Wednesday but gave back 7.3% on Thursday. It trades 95% below its 2021 - 2022 level.
• Block delivered a big earnings and revenue miss. Shares plummeted 18% after the report on Friday.
• Dropbox fared almost as poorly as Block, dropping around 15% after its earnings report on Friday. And that’s despite beating on both the top and bottom lines.
• Bumble’s struggles are far from over. This week, the company reported Q4 numbers roughly in line with expectations but now forecasts a year-over-year revenue decline between 7% and 10% in Q1 2025. Shares plunged 30% after the report and added another 3% to the downside on Thursday where it closed at $5.47, its lowest daily close ever. The stock is down more than 93% from its IPO peak in 2021.
• Chinese tech giant Alibaba reported strong growth and a solid earnings beat. Shares rallied more than 8% on Thursday after the report and extended gains on Friday. The stock is up 70% so far in 2025 alone.
• HSBC reported revenue and earnings slightly below expectations, along with a $2 billion buyback plan.