News Recap • Week 9 2025

The economic data coming out of the US continues to be one of the main concerns for investors. Friday provided some relief in the form of the latest inflation data though.

Check the news below and make sure to visit my latest Market Recap as well.

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Macro

• The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE, came in line with expectations in January. The headline number landed at 2.5% with core at 2.6%. Personal income rose 0.9% for the month, more than the 0.4% expected. And yet, spending decreased 0.2% vs expectations for a 0.1% gain. The PCE data was a welcome relief amidst a slew of negative economic data.
• Donald Trump confirmed that the previously announced 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada will take effect on March 4. They were paused for a month on February 3 but the two countries have allegedly failed to curb the flow of illegal drugs into the US. Trump also said an additional 10% tariff will be added to imports from China. China pledged to respond in kind.
• In more Trump news, he and VP Vance met with Ukraine President Zelenskyy on Friday to discuss a deal on critical minerals and a potential peace deal with Russia. The meeting didn’t end well. Trump accused Zelenskyy of being disrespectful and “not ready for peace”.
• The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index dropped 7% to 98.3. It was the largest monthly drop since August 2021 and well below the consensus forecast. An apprehensive consumer is bad news for the economy so investors will be watching closely for more data points to either confirm or disprove this one.
• Weekly jobless claims in the US rose to a seasonally adjusted 242,000, up 22,000 from last week and higher than the 225,000 forecast.
• The Department of Government Efficiency is reportedly planning to fire nearly all 1,700 employees in the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
• Germany’s conservative parties won the election as expected while the far-right AfD secured 20% of the votes.
• German inflation stayed unchanged at 2.8% in February, higher than the 2.7% forecast. Core inflation fell from 2.9% to 2.6% though.
• Turkey exited its technical recession with stronger-than-expected growth in the fourth quarter.
• The 10-year US treasury bond yield fell below that of the 3-month. This inversion has historically been one of the more reliable recession indicators, although it’s by no means a guarantee.
• China is expected to lower its consumer price inflation target to 2% next week, while also acknowledging a significant softening in domestic demand and revealing some highly anticipated details on its fiscal stimulus plan.
• The Bank of Korea cut interest rates from 3% to 2.75%, in line with expectations. It also cut its 2025 growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.5%, citing deteriorating economic sentiment and US tariff policies. The stock market reaction was muted.

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Other

• Amazon unveiled Ocelot, a new quantum computing chip. Although it has only a fraction of the computing power needed to create a useful machine, Amazon believes the technology can be scaled up in a working machine.
• Microsoft is shutting down Skype after acquiring the company for $8.5 billion in 2011.
• MrBeast, aka Jimmy Donaldson, is reportedly raising around $200 million at a $5 billion valuation for his holding company.
• Apple announced that it will invest $500 billion on infrastructure and research jobs in the US over the next four years.
• Dutch technology investor Prosus has offered to buy Just Eat for €20.3 per share or $4.1 billion in total. Just Eat shares jumped more than 50% to €19.42.
• BlackRock updated its model portfolios to include the Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) with an allocation of 1 to 2%. It could mean a significant increase in interest for the ETF as financial advisors typically follow these predefined strategies to manage client funds.
• Donald Trump said on Sunday that he directed the Presidential Working Group to move forward on a Crypto Strategic Reserve that includes Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), and Solana (SOL). He later added that it will include Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as well. The crypto market soared on the announcement with ADA and XRP naturally leading the way.

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Earnings

• Nvidia reported another impressive quarter on Wednesday with revenue coming in at $39.33 billion vs $38.05 billion expected. Earnings landed at 89 cents per share vs 84 cents expected. Even revenue guidance for the new quarter came in above expectations at $43 billion. So while growth is obviously slowing, Nvidia continues to put up some of the most impressive numbers on Wall Street. And yet, after initially rising modestly on Thursday after the report, Nvidia ended the day down by 8.48%. It recovered 3.97% of it on Friday though.
• Salesforce delivered a solid beat on earnings but fell short on revenue in Q4. Guidance was disappointing. Shares fell 4% after the report.
• Zoom reported earnings of $1.41 per share on revenue of $1.184 billion. Analysts had expected $1.30 and $1.179 billion. The stock slipped 8.48% after the report.
• Home Depot narrowly beat on both earnings and revenue in its latest quarter. The stock rose 2.84% the day after the report.
• Duolingo reported a massive earnings miss for Q4, making just 28 cents per share vs 48 cents expected. On a more positive note, the company beat estimates for subscribers and active users. Paying subscribers increased 43% from 2023 to 9.5 million. The stock dropped almost 17% after the report on Friday and is now in negative territory for the year after reaching a new record high 10 days ago.
• eBay delivered a small beat, earning $1.25 adjusted per share vs $1.20 expected. Sales came in roughly in line with expectations at $2.58 billion. Some aspects of forward guidance seemed to disappoint investors though, sending shares down by 8.2% on Thursday.