Market Recap • Week 40 2025

Highlights from the week of Sep 29 - Oct 05, 2025

European equities break out from 4-month consolidation while North America, Asia, and precious metals continue to surge.

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Equities

America

• 🇺🇸 S&P 500 rose 1.08% to a new all-time high and crossed 6,700 for the first time in history. The index closed green every day this week, although Friday’s 0.01% gain was as close to flat as possible.
• 🇺🇸 Nasdaq Composite gained 1.32% for its 10th weekly all-time high since April’s tariff crash. The Nasdaq is now up almost 18% for the year.
• 🇺🇸 Dow Jones Industrial rose 1.1% and also closed at a new all-time high, briefly topping 47,000 in the process for the first time ever.
• 🇺🇸 Russell 2000 rallied 1.72% to a new all-time high. The Russell 2000 is only now surpassing its prior peaks from 2021 and 2024.
• 🇨🇦 TSX surged 2.39% and continues to look ridiculously strong. This marked the 16th weekly all-time high for the index since May and extended its year-to-date gains to 23.23%.
• 🇲🇽 IPC touched a new all-time high intraweek but closed with a 0.52% decline.
• 🇧🇷 Bovespa dropped 0.86% and pulled back from its all-time high.
• 🇦🇷 Merval rose 0.78% as it tries to find its footing after the recent sell-off.

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Europe

• 🇪🇺 STOXX 600 surged 2.87% and broke out to a new all-time high after going sideways for four months since the tariff recovery.
• 🇬🇧 FTSE 100 rallied 2.22% and also broke out to a new all-time high.
• 🇩🇪 DAX jumped 2.69% and closed at a new all-time high, barely above its prior peak from August.
• 🇪🇸 IBEX 35 rose 1.63% to yet another all-time high. The index is now up 34.5% for the year and has made 12 weekly all-time highs since May.
• 🇫🇷 CAC 40 soared 2.68% and closed at the highest level since pre-Liberation Day.
• 🇮🇹 IT40 gained 1.23% and is once again within striking distance of its record highs.
• 🇩🇰 C25 surged 3.88% on the back of a 8.71% gain in Novo Nordisk.

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Asia

• 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 kicked off the week with three days of declines but staged a strong comeback Thursday and Friday in particular, closing the week with a 0.91% gain at a new all-time high. The Nikkei is now up 48.4% since the April lows.
• 🇨🇳 Hang Seng surged 3.88% to a new 4-year high and extended its year-to-date gains to 35.3%.
• 🇮🇳 Nifty 50 rose 0.97% but remains in a sideways consolidation pattern in place since May.
• 🇰🇷 KOSPI vaulted 4.82% to a new all-time high after last week’s pullback. The leading Korean index is now up 47.9% for the year and 55.2% since the April lows.
• 🇹🇼 TSEC soared 4.62% and also closed at a new all-time high. The Taiwanese market took one of the biggest tariff hits in April and is thus “only” up 16.2% for the year despite a 54.5% surge since April.

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Currencies & Commodities

• 💰 The DXY weakened by 0.48% and remains near cycle lows in the 97’s.
• 🇪🇺 USD.EUR declined 0.37% to 0.8513 EUR.
• 🇩🇰 USD.DKK fell 0.3% to 6.3574 DKK.
• 🇬🇧 USD.GBP weakened by 0.58%, putting the price of 1 USD at 0.742 GBP.
• 🇯🇵 USD.JPY saw an outsized 1.35% drop, its largest 1-week decline since May. It remains within the same range in place for almost three months.
• 🇨🇳 USD.CNH closed marginally lower this week at 7.1355 CNH.
• 🥇 Gold continued its historic run with a 3.38% gain this week, closing at $3,885 per ounce. The price of gold is up 48% in 2025 after a 11.92% rally in September alone.
• 🥈 Silver surged 4.23% and surpassed $48 per ounce for the first time in 14 years. It’s now just 4% away from its all-time high reached in April 2011.
• 🥉 Copper soared 6.74% to reclaim the $5 / ounce level for the first time since July.
• 🏆 Bitcoin has more than recovered from last week’s drop, surging 9.3% as of Saturday morning (CET). The price on Friday got within 0.5% of the $124,500 record before pulling back to $122,600 where it’s currently trading. Bitcoin has gained 31.4% in 2025.
• The altcoin market is lagging Bitcoin a bit but has still had a stellar week, gaining 7.3% as of Saturday morning. Both Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) are up around 9% for the week while Binance Coin (BNB) is the big winner with a 18% gain and a new all-time high.

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Bond yields

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• 🇺🇸 The US 2-year yield dropped 1.84% to 3.576% and is again flirting with the 3.5% level that’s served as support over the past year.
• 🇺🇸 The US 10-year yield declined 1.27% to 4.121%.
• 🇺🇸 The US 30-year yield fell 0.72% to 4.711%.
• 🇪🇺 The Euro 2-year yield declined 0.84% to 2.012% but remains in a clear uptrend in place since April.
• 🇪🇺 The Euro 10-year yield dropped 1.38% to 2.706%.
• 🇨🇳 The China 10-year yield fell 1.88% to 1.878% after hitting a new 5-month high last week.
• 🇨🇳 The China 30-year yield eked out a 0.58% gain to a new 10-month high of 2.262%.

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Other

• The VIX jumped 8.89% but remains near cycle lows below 17.