Market Recap • Week 44 2025

Highlights from the week of October 27 - November 2, 2025

A massive week for the Merval, Nikkei, and Nasdaq while gold continues to pull back and the dollar rebounds.

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Equities

America

• 🇺🇸 S&P 500 rose 0.71% this week and closed at a new all-time high for the 14th time this year. The index is now up 16.3% year-to-date and more than 41% from the April lows.
• 🇺🇸 Nasdaq Composite continued its outperformance with a 2.24% gain this week, fueled by strong earnings reports from Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon. This week’s performance brought the Nasdaq’s 2025 gains to 22.9% after having been down by 24% in April.
• 🇺🇸 Dow Jones Industrial rose 0.75% this week and briefly topped 48,000 for the first time.
• 🇺🇸 Russell 2000 was a big laggard this week, falling 1.36% as the attention shifted back toward big tech.
• 🇨🇦 TSX inched down by 0.3% but remains right below its recent all-time high. The Canadian index has now traded four weeks without closing at a new record, its longest streak since the post-Liberation Day recovery in April and May. I’d call that a well-deserved pause.
• 🇲🇽 IPC rallied 2.66% to its highest weekly close on record. The index is now up 26.77% year-to-date.
• 🇧🇷 Bovespa jumped 2.3% and broke out to a new all-time high while extending its year-to-date gain to 24.32%.
• 🇦🇷 Merval had one of the wildest weeks I’ve ever seen for any broad index, soaring 44.57% on the back of Javier Milei’s midterm election victory and closing at a new record high. The move also flipped the Merval from being one of this year’s biggest losers to now a very respectable performer with a solid 18.51% year-to-date gain.

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Europe

• 🇪🇺 STOXX 600 retreated from all-time highs with a 0.67% decline this week. The broad European index is up 12.66% this year but still trails its US counterparts and many other country-wide indexes around the world.
• 🇬🇧 FTSE 100 rose 0.74% to a new record high, extending its year-to-date gain to 18.89%.
• 🇩🇪 DAX fell 1.16% this week and extended its sideways consolidation. Despite having made no progress since May, the German index is still up more than 20% in 2025.
• 🇪🇸 IBEX 35 gained 1.1% and made a new all-time high, now up 38.2% year-to-date.
• 🇫🇷 CAC 40 dropped 1.27% after finding resistance at 8,250 for the fourth time since March of last year.
• 🇮🇹 IT40 jumped 1.77% this and is again closing in on its all-time highs.
• 🇩🇰 C25 just continues to struggle, falling 1.06% this week and once again extending its year-to-date losses to more than 5%.

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Asia

• 🇯🇵 Nikkei 225 vaulted 6.31% for its best week since its recovery from the yen carry trade unwind back in August of last year. The Nikkei is now up 31.38% year-to-date and 70% from the April lows.
• 🇨🇳 Hang Seng fell 0.97% this week but is still up more than 29% for the year.
• 🇮🇳 Nifty 50 inched down by 0.28% this week and is now up 8.79% for the year, making India one of the biggest laggards in Asia and globally.
• 🇰🇷 KOSPI surged another 4.21% this week and extended its 2025 gain to 71.18%.
• 🇹🇼 TSEC rallied 2.55% to yet another new record high this week.

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Currencies & Commodities

• 💰 The DXY jumped 0.79% on the back of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish speech on Wednesday. The dollar index has gained 3.6% since the September bottom and closed at 99.716 this week, its highest weekly close since May.
• 🇪🇺 USD.EUR strengthened by 0.44% to 0.864 EUR.
• 🇩🇰 USD.DKK rose 0.76% to 6.47 DKK this week.
• 🇬🇧 USD.GBP surged 1.55% this week and closed at 0.763, its highest level since April.
• 🇯🇵 USD.JPY gained another 0.74% and has now strengthened by 10% since April. While the broad dollar index is still down more than 8% year-to-date, the dollar/yen pair is only down 2.1% after this week’s move.
• 🇨🇳 USD.CNH fell 0.5% early in the week but closed virtually unchanged at 7.122 CNH.
• 🥇 Gold continued pulling back with a 2.65% loss this week. The price briefly dipped below $3,900 per ounce but closed the week right above $4,000. Even with the current 10% pullback, the price of gold is still up 52.5% this year alone.
• 🥈 Silver plummeted on Monday and early Tuesday before staging a reversal, recovering from a 6% loss to close the week marginally in the green at $48.656 per ounce.
• 🥉 Copper closed virtually flat this week at $5.16 per ounce.
• 🏆 Bitcoin has given back most of last week’s gains as of Saturday morning (CET), down almost 4% and trading at $110,000. The price is up around 18% in 2025 but trailing its most common benchmarks like gold and the Nasdaq.
• The altcoin market is down 5% for the week with both Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) losing around 7% of their value.

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Bond yields

• 🇺🇸 The US 2-year yield jumped 2.76% this week after the Fed’s hawkish rate cut on Wednesday.
• 🇺🇸 The US 10-year yield rose 1.95% to 4.08% this week.
• 🇺🇸 The US 30-year yield gained 1.35% this week and rebounded from 6-month lows.
• 🇪🇺 The Euro 2-year yield initially rose in unison with the US but gave it all back Thursday and Friday after the ECB’s interest rate meeting, closing the week 0.4% lower at 1.97%.
• 🇪🇺 The Euro 10-year yield closed virtually unchanged at 2.626%.
• 🇨🇳 The China 10-year yield fell 1.4% to 1.764%.
• 🇨🇳 The China 30-year yield dropped 2.16% and closed the week at 2.17%, its lowest level since September.

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Other

• The VIX rose 6.54% amid earnings and Fed volatility, closing the week at 17.44.