News Recap • Week 29 2025

Check the news below and make sure to visit my latest Market Recap as well.

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Macro

• Mon China’s GDP grew 5.2% in Q2, beating expectations for 5.1% but slowing from 5.4% in the prior quarter. Retail sales in June slowed to a 4.8% annual growth rate compared with 6.4% in May, less than the 5.4% forecast. Industrial output on the other hand expanded by 6.8%, easily beating expectations for 5.7%. (CNBC)
• Mon China’s overall exports rose 5.8% in June in US dollar terms compared to a year earlier, beating expectations for a 5% increase. Imports rose 1.1%, missing expectations for 1.3% but still showing a gain for the first time this year. This data is a small positive sign that the Chinese economy may be picking up speed, or at least not falling apart just yet. Exports and imports to/from the US dropped 16.1% and 15.5% respectively, falling for a third straight month but easing the declines from May. (CNBC)
• Mon India’s annual inflation rate fell to 2.1% in June. This was well below the 2.5% forecast and the lowest reading in more than six years. The low reading isn’t seen as a positive for the Reserve Bank of India who targets an annual inflation rate of 4%. It does however allow the RBI to cut rates and stimulate the economy further without fears of run-away inflation. (CNBC)
• Mon French President Emmanuel Macron announced plans for a substantial increase in the country’s defense spending over the next few years. He called for €3.5 billion increase next year and an additional €3 billion in 2027. (CNBC)
• Mon Trump put some pressure on Russia by threatening 100% tariffs if a peace deal with Ukraine hasn’t been made by September. (CNBC)
• Tue President Donald Trump said the US has reached a new trade deal with Indonesia, featuring a 19% tariff on Indonesian goods. The two countries traded more than $38 billion in goods in 2024. (CNBC)
• Tue The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in line with expectations. The annual headline inflation rate picked up from 2.4% in May to 2.7% in June while the core reading inched up from 2.8% to 2.9%. (CNBC)
• Wed The US Producer Price Index (PPI) came in unchanged for the month of June vs expectations for a 0.2% increase. This was the case for both headline and core PPI. On an annual basis, the two numbers were up 2.3% and 2.6% respectively. This was the lowest level for core PPI since July last year. (CNBC)
• Wed UK’s annual inflation rate rose from 3.4% in May to 3.6% in June and is clearly not yet under control compared to the lower inflation in both the EU and US. The core inflation rate hit 3.7%, up from 3.5% last month. The sticky inflation complicates the Bank of England’s job as recent data also points to a slowing economy. How much they’re able and willing to cut rates will be interesting to follow. (CNBC)
• Wed Japan’s exports fell 0.5% in June following a 1.7% drop in May. Economists had expected a 0.5% expansion. Exports to the US dropped by 11.4% year over year, still with no trade agreement in sight. (CNBC)
• Wed China’s new-home prices fell 0.3% month over month in June, the steepest monthly drop in eight months. Second-hand home prices fell 0.6%, the biggest drop since September 2024. (The Kobeissi Letter)
• Wed The EU proposed a new €2 trillion budget with a significant increase in defense spending. The new budget would run from 2028 to 2035. It still needs to be approved by all member nations and will likely undergo some changes before a potential implementation. (CNBC)
• Wed Rumors about Trump firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell picked up steam on Wednesday. However, it didn’t take long for Trump himself to deny those rumors, calling it highly unlikely that he will fire Powell. He didn’t rule it out though. The saga continues. (CNBC)
• Thu US retail sales surprised to the upside with a 0.6% increase in June, pointing to continued strength in the American consumer. (Reuters)
• Thu Core inflation in Japan cooled from 3.7% to 3.3% in June, in line with expectations. The headline number also came in at 3.3%, down from 3.5% in May. Although the slight cooling is a positive sign, Japan is clearly still struggling with sticky inflation. Interest rates in Japan are significantly lower than in the US and Europe and could easily be hiked in an attempt to combat inflation, but the slowing economy may not be able to handle higher rates. (CNBC)

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Other

• Mon The US government allowed Nvidia to resume sales of its previously restricted H20 GPU to clients in China. The stock jumped more than 4% on Tuesday after the news and closed the week at a new all-time high with a $4.2 trillion market cap. (CNBC)
• Mon Windsurf is getting acquired by fellow AI startup Cognition after Google poached the former’s CEO in a $2.4 billion licensing deal. The terms of the deal were not disclosed. (CNBC)
• Tue AI startup Thinking Machines Lab, founded by former OpenAI executive Mira Murati, has raised $2 billion at a $12 billion valuation. The round was led by Andreessen Horowitz with participation from Nvidia, AMD, Cisco, and others. (Reuters)
• Wed Nvidia now accounts for 4.73% of the MSCI All Country World Index, passing the entire Japan market’s 4.65% share. It’s already way past the UK, China, and Canada which account for around 3% each. (The Kobeissi Letter)
• Wed Retail investors accounted for 14% of all single-stock trading volume, the highest level since at least 2018 where the tracking began. (The Kobeissi Letter)
• Wed Billionaire PayPal founder and VC investor Peter Thiel disclosed a 9.1% stake in Bitmine Immersion Technologies, the crypto miner that recently shifted its business to become an Ethereum (ETH) treasury company. The stock rallied 12% on the news on Wednesday. (Reuters)
• Thu Uber will invest $300 million in EV maker Lucid in a robotaxi deal. Over six years, Uber will acquire and deploy over 20,000 Lucid vehicles that will be equipped with autonomous vehicle technology from Nuro. (Reuters)
• Thu Danish wind energy company Vestas announced a massive 527 MW order from the US on Thursday. The stock has been a massive laggard for years, falling 75% from its January 2021 peak to the lows in April of this year. The positive news sent the stock up by 15% on Friday to its highest level since November. (Euroinvestor)
• Fri It was a big week for crypto regulation in the US as three separate bills cleared the House with a significant majority of the votes. The so-called GENIUS Act was already signed into law by Donald Trump shortly after, providing a clear framework for stablecoin providers. The CLARITY Act seeks to establish when a crypto asset is a commodity while the third bill prevents the Fed from creating a so-called Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), a controversial form of money that would give the state unprecedented power and surveillance capabilities. The total crypto market went to new all-time highs this week. (Reuters)
• Fri FinTech company Block will replace Hess in the S&P 500 as of July 23. Block shares surged more than 10% on the news in after hours trading. (CNBC)

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Earnings

• Tue JPMorgan Chase reported revenue of $45.68 billion compared to the estimated $44.06 billion. Earnings per share came in at $5.24, although 28 cents of that could be attributed to a $774 million income tax benefit. Either way, EPS beat the $4.48 forecast. The stock reaction was muted with JPM shares down 0.74% on the day although they closed the week with a 1.54% gain, right below the recent all-time high. (CNBC)
• Tue Citigroup delivered a big earnings beat, making $1.96 per share vs $1.60 expected. Revenue came in at $21.67 billion vs $20.98 billion expected. Shares rallied 3.68% on Tuesday after the report and closed the week with a 7.75% gain at a new all-time high. (CNBC)
• Tue BlackRock’s revenue rose 13% year over year to $5.42 billion in Q2 while net income came in 6.6% higher at $1.59 billion. The stock plummeted 5.88% on Tuesday after the report but recovered most of the loss by the end of the week. (Yahoo Finance)
• Wed Morgan Stanley beat expectations on both the top and bottom lines. Earnings came in at $2.13 per share on $16.79 billion in revenue. Analysts had expected $1.96 and $16.07 billion. The stock fell 1.27% after the report but remains near all-time highs. (CNBC)
• Wed Goldman Sachs earned $10.91 per share vs the forecast for $9.53. Revenue hit $14.58 billion, also beating estimates. The company’s trading operations in particular generated $840 more in revenue than expected. The stock gained 0.9% on Wednesday after the report. (CNBC)
• Wed Bank of America was the only one of the big US financials that didn’t deliver a blow-out report. Earnings came in slightly above forecast at 89 cents but revenue fell short, landing at $26.61 billion vs $26.72 billion expected. And yet, the stock closed just marginally lower after the report and then jumped more than 2% on Thursday to close the week with a 1.26% gain. (CNBC)
• Wed Johnson & Johnson delivered earnings of $2.77 per share, beating estimates for $2.66. Revenue came in at $23.74 billion, also beating estimates. (Yahoo Finance)
• Wed Dutch tech giant ASML reported a solid beat with strong growth on both the top and bottom lines. The company now expects net sales to grow 15% in full-year 2025. However, due to macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, ASML can no longer confirm its growth prospects for 2026. That last bit seemed to spook investors who sent shares down by more than 11% on Wednesday after the report. (CNBC)
• Thu Netflix delivered another strong quarterly report. Revenue came in slightly above estimates at $11.08 billion while earnings per share reached $7.19 and beat expectations for $7.08. Revenue was up 16% year over year. The company also raised its full-year revenue guidance from a range of $43.5 to $44.5 billion to a new range of $44.8 to $45.2 billion. Despite the strong report, shares fell more than 5% after the report. And yet, the stock is still up more than 35% in 2025 alone and around 615% since the bear market bottom exactly three years ago. (CNBC)
• Thu PepsiCo delivered a strong report with $22.73 billion in revenue and $2.12 in adjusted earnings per share. The two numbers were expected to come in at $22.27 billion and $2.03 respectively. Shares surged 7.45% after the report but are still down 27% from the 2023 all-time high. (CNBC)
• Thu Taiwan Semiconductor reported a 61% surge in profits as demand for its advanced processors surge among clients like Nvidia and Apple. Shares gained 3.38% after the report on Thursday and are now up more than 21% for the year. (CNBC)
• Thu Interactive Brokers reported a 20% annual increase in revenue, coming in at $1.48 billion and beating expectations. Earnings per share came in at $0.51, beating the $0.44 consensus forecast. The stock surged 7.77% to a new all-time high on Friday after the report (Yahoo Finance)
• Fri Burberry reported 4% year-on-year sales growth in the US, sparking some optimism around a turnaround story for the legacy luxury brand. The stock rallied 5.57% after the report on Friday and closed at its highest level since February 2024. (CNBC)
• Fri Denmark’s largest bank, Danske Bank, reported earnings of DKK 5.45 billion, in line with expectations. The stock closed with a minor gain of 0.31% on Friday after a somewhat volatile day. (Euroinvestor)