News Recap • Week 31 2025

Check the news below and make sure to visit my latest Market Recap as well.

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Macro

• Mon President Trump increased the pressure on Russia, giving the country less than two weeks to reach a peace deal with Ukraine or face “massive secondary tariffs” on its trade partners. (CNBC)
• Mon Many European leaders and analysts expressed concerns with the trade agreement made between the EU and US on Sunday, calling it unbalanced. (CNBC)
• Wed The US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50%, exactly as expected. Most notably, two committee members opposed the decision and advocated for a cut. It was the first time since 1993 that a rate decision saw multiple dissents. Fed chair Powell emphasized to the press that a September cut is by no means guaranteed. The hawkish tone seemed to be enough for the stock market to sell off. (CNBC)
• Wed The US economy grew at a 3% annual rate in Q2, much better than the 0.5% contraction measured in Q1 and way ahead of the 2.3% forecast. Consumer spending rose 1.4% while exports declined 1.8%. Notably, imports plummeted 30.3% in the quarter after surging 37.9% in Q1 as companies front ran the tariff threat. (CNBC)
• Wed The eurozone economy grew by 0.1% in Q2 compared to Q1, beating expectations for no change. (CNBC)
• Wed Private payrolls rose by a seasonally adjusted 104,000 in July, reversing a loss of 23,000 in June and beating expectations for a 64,000 increase. (CNBC)
• Wed The US and South Korea agreed to the terms of a new trade deal including a 15% tariff on South Korean exports to the US. That’s significantly lower than the 25% first promised in a letter earlier in July. (CNBC)
• Wed Trump said that India will get hit by a 25% starting August 1, plus a “penalty” for its trade with Russia. (CNBC)
• Wed Trump put a universal 50% tariff on copper imports, causing the price of copper to plummet more than 18% for its worst day since 1989. (CNBC)
• Thu The US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index (PCE) rose 2.6% year over year with the Core PCE gaining 2.8%, both 0.1 percentage points ahead of the market consensus. As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, a hotter-than-expected figure reduces the likelihood of rate cuts in the near future. (Reuters)
• Thu Trump on Thursday signed a new executive order to modify the reciprocal tariff rate on multiple countries, ranging from 10% to 41%. This was likely one of the stories that sent the stock market lower on Thursday and Friday. (CNBC)
• Thu China has reportedly stopped approving outbound investments for companies looking to set up or expand operations in the US amid the ongoing trade negotiations. (Nikkei Asia)
• Fri Perhaps the most anticipated macro data release this week was the monthly non-farm payrolls on Friday. The reports showed 77,000 new jobs created in July, below the 100,000 forecast. Unemployment remained at 4.2%. What really stood out in the data were the revisions though. The jobs growth in May was revised down from 144,000 to 19,000 while the June number got slashed from 147,000 to just 14,000. In other words, these numbers are completely useless when they first come out and the 77,000 just reported might as well be a random number. (CNBC)
• Fri Just hours after the non-farm payrolls data was released, Trump reacted to the 88% revision by firing the Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer. Trump unsurprisingly made it political, essentially claiming that she had been cooking the books to make him look bad instead of just firing her for producing low-quality data. (CNBC)
• Fri Eurozone inflation came in at 2% for a second straight month in July, slightly higher than the 1.9% forecast but right on target. Core inflation remained at 2.3%. Services inflation eased from 3.3% in June to 3.1% in July. (CNBC)
• Fri Asia’s factory activity slowed significantly in July according to the latest S&P PMI surveys. (Reuters)
• Fri Governor Adriana Kugler resigned from the Federal Open Market Committee on Friday. President Trump will now be able to appoint a new member to the FOMC, strengthening his ability to steer the rate-setting committee in his desired direction. (CNBC)

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Other

• Mon Samsung entered into a $16.5 billion contract for supplying semiconductors to Tesla. (CNBC)
• Tue India surpassed China in smartphone exports to the US with 44% of the market compared to China’s 25% in Q2. That’s a massive shift compared to the same period last year where the two countries accounted for 13% and 61% respectively. (CNBC)
• Tue Novo Nordisk plummeted more than 23% after slashing guidance and announcing Maziar Mike Doustdar as new CEO. The company now sees full-year sales growth of 8 to 14%, down from a prior target of 13 to 21%. The hope for investors is that the company has now delivered the worst news to clear the slate for its new CEO so it won’t get any worse than this. Time will tell. The stock is down 69% from its peak last summer. (CNBC)
• Tue AI startup Anthropic is reportedly looking to raise $5 billion at a $170 billion valuation, almost three times higher than its $61.5 valuation achieved in March. (CNBC)
• Thu Figma priced its IPO at $33 per share, above the expected range. And yet, the stock surged in its first day of trading, opening at $85 and closing at $115.50 for a +380% gain at a $56 billion market cap. (CNBC)
• Fri OpenAI secured another $8.3 billion as part of a funding round that values the AI startup at $300 billion. This comes as the company’s annualized recurring revenue tops $13 billion. (CNBC)
• Fri Tesla was ordered to pay a portion of $329 million in damages to the victims and a survivor of a fatal 2019 Tesla Autopilot crash. (CNBC)
• Sat AI infrastructure provider Vast Data is reportedly seeking new funding at a $30 billion valuation with both Nvidia and Alphabet’s CapitalG as investors. (Reuters)

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Earnings

• Tue Spotify reported a surprise loss of €42 per share, way below analysts’ expectations for earnings of €1.90. Revenue also came in light and guidance was lowered, although the company is still showing impressive growth on all fronts. The stock plunged 11.55% on Tuesday after the report but is still within one of the market’s most impressive uptrends going back to late 2022. (CNBC)
• Tue Starbucks reported 4% sales growth to $9.5 billion, beating expectations for $9.31 billion. Global same-store sales declined more than expected though, albeit with North American cafes doing slightly better than forecast. Shares closed marginally lower after a volatile trading session on Tuesday but lost 8% for the week. (CNBC)
• Tue Visa reported revenue of just under $10.20 billion, up 14% from a year ago. That beat expectations for around 11% growth. Earnings grew 23% to $2.98 per share, also well above expectations. The company’s forward guidance was disappointing though. The stock closed virtually flat on Wednesday after the report but gave up more than 3% during the following two sessions. (Investing.com)
• Tue PayPal beat expectations for both revenue and earnings in the second quarter. However, growth in transaction margin dollars slowed sequentially from 8% in Q1 to now 7%. Branded checkout volume growth also slowed from 6% to 5%. Those key metrics may have been what spooked investors who sent the stock down by 8.66% on the day and almost 14% for the week. (CNBC)
• Tue Boeing delivered a beat on both the top and bottom line, the latter showing a loss of $1.24 adjusted per share vs $1.48 expected. The stock initially rose after the report but closed the day 4.37% lower. (CNBC)
• Tue Booking Holdings delivered earnings of $55.4 per share, beating the consensus estimate by almost 9%. EPS grew 32.2% from a year ago while revenue was up 16%. Shares ended Wednesday with a modest 0.4% gain after a volatile session but dropped with the rest of the market on Thursday and Friday. (Yahoo Finance)
• Tue Kering reported a 15% drop in sales year-over-year with Gucci sales, which makes up around half of the company’s revenue, plummeted 25% in the quarter. The stock closed Wednesday up 1.22% after giving up most of its early gains. (CNBC)
• Wed Microsoft reported revenue of $76.44 billion, rising 18% from a year earlier and beating expectations for $73.81 billion. Earnings came in at $3.65 per share, well ahead of the $3.37 forecast. The company’s guidance also surprised to the upside. Shares jumped almost 4% on Thursday but had been up more than 8% early in the day, crossing the $4 trillion market cap milestone in the process. (CNBC)
• Wed Meta blew away all expectations, earning $7.14 per share compared to a $5.92 forecast. Revenue came in at $47.52 billion vs $44.80 billion expected. Sales grew 22% year over year. Meta also upped its Q3 revenue guidance to a range between $47.5 and $50.5 billion, above Wall Street’s forecast. The stock rallied more than 11% to a new all-time high. (CNBC)
• Wed Qualcomm reported $2.77 in earnings per share vs $2.71 expected. Revenue also came in slightly better than forecast at $10.37 billion. The company’s guidance for the current quarter was also above expectations. Shares fell 7.73% after the report though. (CNBC)
• Wed Robinhood delivered another blowout quarter. Earnings per share came in at 42 cents vs 31 cents expected with revenue at $989 million vs $908 million expected. Revenue was up 45% from last year while net income more than doubled to $386 million. Shares initially rose after the report but closed lower on the day on a rough day for the market. (CNBC)
• Wed Ford beat revenue expectations in the second quarter and reinstated its full-year guidance. Shares rose 1.84% on Thursday after the report. (CNBC)
• Wed Samsung’s Q2 operating profit came in at 4.7 trillion won, less than half of the 10.44 trillion reported last year but still beating the company’s own forecast. (CNBC)
• Thu Apple reported annual revenue growth of 10%, its largest since Q4 of 2021. iPhone revenue grew 13% to $44.58 billion, well ahead of the $40.22 billion forecast. Mac and Services revenue also came in above expectations while the iPad and other products fell short. The company’s gross margin landed at 46.5% vs 45.9% expected. Shares initially rallied 2.8% in Friday’s session but closed the day with a 2.5% loss amid a broad market selloff. (CNBC)
• Thu Amazon reported a solid beat, earning $1.68 per share in Q2 compared to $1.33 expected. Revenue came in at $167.7 billion, more than $5.5 billion ahead of expectations. AWS and ad revenue both came in above forecast as well. However, the beat paled in comparison to what was reported by Microsoft and Meta the day before. Furthermore, Amazon’s guidance was lighter than expected. The stock plummeted 8.27% on Friday after the report and is now back in negative territory for the year. (CNBC)
• Thu Mastercard’s Q2 earnings and revenue both surpassed expectations with the latter seeing a 16% increase year over year. The stock closed with a 1.32% gain on Thursday after the report. (Investing.com)
• Thu Coinbase earned $1.96 adjusted per share, well ahead of expectations for just $1.26. Revenue came in lighter than expected though. Shares plunged 16.7% on Friday after the report, under additional pressure from a generally weak market. (CNBC)
• Thu Reddit’s earnings per share came in at 45 cents, far better than the 19 cents expected. Revenue grew 78% year over year to $500 million. Analysts had been looking for $426 million. The company also raised its revenue guidance for Q3 to a range of $535 to $545 million, above the $473 million forecast. The stock popped 17.47% on Friday after the report. (CNBC)
• Sat Berkshire Hathaway’s operating profit fell 4% year over year to $11.16 billion in Q2, mainly dragged down by a decline in insurance underwriting while railroad, energy, manufacturing, service, and retailing all saw higher profits from a year ago. The company’s cash pile remains near record highs although it decreased slightly from $347 billion at the end of March to $344.1 billion now. Also worth noting, Berkshire was a net seller of equities for the 11th quarter in a row. (CNBC)