News Recap • Week 37 2025

Check the news below and make sure to visit my latest Market Recap as well.

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Macro

• Mon China’s exports grew by just 4.4% in August from a year earlier, the slowest pace since February and well below the 5% forecast. Exports to the US specifically plummeted 33% amid ongoing trade tensions, although the US is still China’s largest importer. A big jump in exports to the EU, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, and Africa helped to offset the US situation. (CNBC)
• Tue US nonfarm payrolls were revised down by 911,000 for the year prior to March 2025. The number was more or less in line with expectations which ranged from 600,000 to 1 million. And while the massive downward revision makes the labor market seem somewhat weaker than previously assumed, the data is so far in the past that it doesn’t really impact investors’ current view on the economy. The revision doesn’t change the most recent growth data or unemployment rate which remains near historic lows at 4.3%. It does however bring even more attention to the poor quality of the data that’s been released lately. With revisions this large, it’s impossible to trust newly published jobs data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. One outcome of this, to put it bluntly, is that the Fed is making key monetary policy decisions (such as where to place interest rates) based on completely useless data. (CNBC)
• Tue China’s Consumer Price Index declined by 0.4% year-on-year in August, more than the 0.2% forecast. Core CPI meanwhile actually rose 0.9% from a year earlier, in large part because the 4.3% drop in food prices is stripped out. China’s Producer Price Index fell 2.9% in August, in line with expectations. The low inflation and slowing economic growth open the door for additional stimulus and fiscal support from Beijing, which may be what caused investors to send the Hang Seng index up by 3.82% this week to a new 4-year high. (CNBC)
• Wed President Donald Trump was blocked from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook but quickly appealed the ruling. (CNBC)
• Wed The US Producer Price Index for August came in significantly cooler than expected. The headline number actually declined by 0.1% on the month, compared to the consensus forecast for a 0.3% increase. On an annual basis, the headline and core PPI were up 2.6% and 2.8% respectively with the former expected to come in at 3.3% after hitting 3.1% in July. Rising inflation has been the main concern for many economists and the Fed alike, preventing the latter from lowering interest rates despite being rather restrictive and putting pressure on the economy and labor market. The cool PPI print alleviates many of the inflation concerns and should serve as a green light for the Fed to kickstart the rate cutting cycle. Unsurprisingly, risk assets rallied on the news while bond yields dropped. (CNBC)
• Thu While the PPI delivered a big surprise to the downside, the US Consumer Price Index was more or less in line with expectations. The annual headline figure landed at 2.9% while core hit 3.1%. The only inflation figure that didn’t hit the forecast was the monthly headline inflation rate which came in at 0.4% vs a 0.3% forecast. While the annual inflation rate is still some ways away from the 2% target, the Fed is still expected to cut interest rates by 25 bps at the meeting next week. (CNBC)
• Thu The European Central Bank as expected left interest rates unchanged at 2%. Eurozone inflation is back to 2% after the covid spike and economic growth has been lackluster, so the environment could warrant additional rate cuts. However, the trade and tariff uncertainty have put the ECB on hold for now. (CNBC)
• Fri UK economic growth flatlined in July, in line with expectations but down from a 0.4% expansion in June. The Bank of England is battling a stagflationary environment with inflation jumping to 3.8% at the latest reading. The slowing economy calls for rate cuts and fiscal stimulus, but the high inflation rate calls for the opposite. In the short term, the BoE is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4% at next week’s meeting but might be forced to cut again soon if economic conditions don’t improve. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 is basically at an all-time high, seemingly not bothered by the situation. (CNBC)

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Other

• Tue Apple launched its new iPhone 17 series, AirPods Pro 3, Apple Watch 11, and the all new iPhone Air. It wasn’t enough to impress investors though. The stock fell 1.5% on Tuesday and another 3.2% Wednesday before rebounding. (CNBC)
• Tue Dutch chip giant ASML invested €1.3 billion in AI startup Mistral’s latest €1.7 billion funding round that valued the company at €11.7 billion ($13.8 billion). (CNBC)
• Wed Novo Nordisk announced it will fire around 9,000 employees, amounting to an 11.5% reduction in its global workforce of 78,400. The move will come at a one-off cost of $1.26 billion. Novo Nordisk shares gained almost 3.7% on the news. (CNBC)
• Wed Klarna went public and opened at $52 per share after pricing them at $40. After trading as high as $57.20, the stock closed its first day of trading at $45.82 and ended the week at $42.92. (CNBC)
• Wed Amazon is reportedly developing its own AR glasses to rival Meta. (Reuters)
• Thu Opendoor named former Shopify executive Kaz Nejatian as its new CEO following Carrie Wheeler’s resignation last month. The stock surged 78% on the news and is now up 1,700% since bottoming out in late June. (CNBC)
• Fri Crypto exchange Gemini priced its IPO at $28 and opened with a 32% pop at $37 before settling its first day of trading at $32. (CNBC)
• Sat The US and UK are reportedly planning to sign a multibillion-dollar technology agreement during Trump's visit to the UK in the coming days. (Reuters)

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Earnings

• Tue Oracle delivered a small earnings and revenue miss but more than made up for it in its forward guidance. The company now sees cloud infrastructure revenue hitting $144 billion in fiscal 2030, up from just $10.3 billion in fiscal 2025. Investors clearly focused on the latter and sent the stock up by 36% after the report on Wednesday. Despite a pullback on Thursday and Friday, the stock still closed the week at a new all-time high with a 25.5% gain. Oracle founder Larry Ellison briefly surpassed Elon Musk as the richest man in the world. (CNBC)
• Thu Adobe reported adjusted earnings of $5.31 per share, ahead of the $5.18 forecast. Revenue also came in above expectations at $5.99 billion. The company also raised its guidance and spoke positively about its roll-out of AI features. After a volatile trading session, the stock closed with a small loss on Friday and is still down more than 21% in 2025. (CNBC)