News Recap • Week 38 2025

Check the news below and make sure to visit my latest Market Recap as well.

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Macro

• Mon Retail sales in China rose 3.4% in August from a year earlier, down from 3.7% in July and below the 3.9% consensus forecast. The slowdown was mainly due to weaker demand for home appliances and electronics. However, sales of gold, silver and jewelry, as well as sports and entertainment products, both grew close to 17% from a year ago. Sales of furniture jumped 18.6%. Service consumption also gained momentum. Industrial output growth slowed to 5.2%, the weakest since August 2024. Analysts had expected the rate to remain unchanged from July at 5.7%. Investors didn’t seem worried by the data, perhaps because it was already expected to be weak or because the slowdown only points to further stimulus on the way. Chinese equities rose on Monday along with gold which set a new all-time high. (CNBC)
• Mon Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US and China have reached a “framework” deal for TikTok and that presidents Xi and Trump would finalize the deal on Friday. (Reuters)
• Mon A federal appeals court ruled that Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook before the FOMC meeting, putting to rest the speculation that he’d be able to replace her with one of his own appointees and sway the vote in his favor (i.e., toward a larger rate cut or at least more cuts to come). (CNBC)
• Mon Stephen Miran was confirmed by the Senate to join the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, just in time for this week’s FOMC meeting. (CNBC)
• Tue US retail sales increased more than expected in August, showing that consumers are still willing and able to spend. Although the increase was partly due to higher prices, not just consumers choosing to spend more, fears of a recession still seem to be highly overblown. Retail sales rose 0.6% for the month compared to a 0.2% forecast and 5.0% year over year. This also marked the third straight month of solid retail sales growth. (Reuters)
• Tue Japan’s August exports declined just 0.1% year over year compared with a forecast for a 1.9% contraction and much better than the 2.6% fall in July. Imports contracted more than expected though, declining 5.2% vs a 4.2% forecast. On the bright side, it was still way better than the 7.4% fall in July. (CNBC)
• Wed The US Federal Reserve lowered the overnight funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, as expected. Only Trump’s economic advisor Stephen Miran dissented and voted for a 50 bps cut. Perhaps the biggest surprise was that he was the only one to vote for a jumbo cut, showing that the FOMC members are still voting in accordance with their views on the economy and not Trump’s wishes. The Fed sees another two 25 bps cuts this year although there’s a lot of disparity among the members. Stocks barely moved after the presser but rose to new record highs on Thursday and Friday. Interestingly, bond yields rose across the US, EU, and UK. (CNBC)
• Wed The UK’s annual inflation rate came in line with expectations at 3.8% in August. The core inflation rate hit 3.6%, down from 3.8% in July. Both are still well above the Bank of England’s 2% target. (CNBC)
• Thu The Bank of England as expected kept interest rates steady at 4% after a 7-2 vote. Two committee members voted for a 25 bps cut. The BoE is still stuck between a rock and a hard place, with slowing economic growth and rising unemployment on one side, and sticky inflation on the other. This also makes it very difficult to project what will happen at the next interest rate meeting in November. (CNBC)
• Thu Weekly jobless claims in the US fell 33,000 to 231,000 and reversed last week’s surge in a positive sign for the labor market. (Reuters)
• Fri The Bank of Japan decided to hold interest rates steady at 0.50%, in line with expectations. However, in an unusual turn of events for the BoJ, two board members dissented and voted for a 25 bps hike. Notably, Japan hasn’t had interest rates above 0.50% since 1995. It’s also worth noting that Japan is moving in the opposite direction of the US and Europe which have both been reducing interest rates for a while and continue to do so. The hawkish tilt within the committee seemed to surprise investors who now see a much higher likelihood of a hike in October. The BoJ also announced it will begin selling off its ETF and REIT holdings at an annual pace of $2 billion and $5 billion respectively. The decision came much sooner than expected. The Nikkei 225 had a volatile trading session on Friday and ended the day lower by 0.57%. Shorter-term Japanese bonds sold off with the 2 and 10-year yields jumping 3.05% and 2.69%. The 2-year closed at an all-time high of 0.913%. (Reuters)

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Other

• Mon China accused Nvidia of violating the country’s anti-monopoly law in relation to its acquisition of Mellanox in 2020. Nvidia shares closed flat on Monday. (CNBC)
• Mon An SEC filing showed that Elon Musk bought 2.57 million Tesla shares worth around $1 billion in the open market on Friday. The purchase helped send Tesla stock up by more than 7% on Friday while the news on Monday seemed to provide an additional boost. (CNBC)
• Mon Alphabet became the fourth company to surpass a $3 trillion market cap after rallying 18% in September on the back of its favorable anti-monopoly ruling and promising new AI products. (CNBC)
• Tue Microsoft said it’s investing $30 billion by 2028 to build out its AI infrastructure in the UK. Nvidia, Alphabet, OpenAI, and Salesforce also announced billion-dollar investment plans for the UK. (CNBC)
• Wed China ordered companies not to buy Nvidia’s RTX Pro 6000D chips. The stock dipped 2.6% on Wednesday after the news broke but fully recovered on Thursday. (CNBC)
• Wed Alphabet’s Waymo announced a partnership with Lyft, aiming to launch its robotaxi service in Nashville next year. Lyft shares rallied more than 13% on the news. (CNBC)
• Wed Meta unveiled its first consumer-ready smart glasses, the $799 Meta Ray-Ban Display glasses. The company also debuted the Oakley Meta Vanguard smart glasses meant for snowboarding, mountain biking, and other high-intensity sports. Meta clearly takes hardware seriously. (CNBC)
• Thu Nvidia said it will invest $5 billion in Intel at $23.28 a share. The latter surged more than 22% on the news for its best day in nearly 38 years. (CNBC)
• Thu Danish drugmaker Novo Nordisk jumped more than 6% on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange after releasing some promising trial results for its Wegovy weight loss pill. (CNBC)

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Earnings

• Thu FedEx delivered a strong beat on both the top and bottom line, earning $3.83 adjusted per share on $22.24 billion in revenue. The stock rose 2.32% after the report. (CNBC)