News Recap • Week 46 2025

Check the news below and make sure to visit my latest Market Recap as well.

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Macro

• Mon The US Senate passed the first stage of a deal that would end the US government shutdown. (CNBC)
• Mon Fed Governor Stephen Miran again called for a 50 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting in December. (CNBC)
• Tue 71% of US consumers expect the unemployment rate to increase over the next 12 months, more than twice as many as a year ago. It’s also the highest percentage since the 1980s. (The Kobeissi Letter)
• Wed The record-long US government shutdown finally ended when a new funding bill was signed into law. Markets had already rallied into the formal signing when the reopening started to seem inevitable on Sunday. (CNBC)
• Wed India’s consumer inflation eased to just 0.25% in October, far below the 0.48% estimate and the 1.54% recorded in September. The cooling inflation raises hopes for further rate cuts in the near future. (CNBC)
• Wed Atlanta Fed President Bostic announced that he will leave his position when his term expires in February 2026. (CNBC)
• Thu Multiple Fed Governors came out this week with hawkish comments regarding a potential rate cut at the December meeting. Odds of a rate cut fell to around 44% after topping well above 90% a month ago and still trading around 67% just one week ago. This also seemed to contribute to the equity market volatility this week, and potentially the slump in cryptocurrencies. (CNBC)
• Thu Fixed-asset investments in China contracted by 1.7% for the first ten months of the year, up from a 0.5% decline measured a month prior. Retail sales grew 2.9% from a year earlier, slightly less than the 3.0% growth rate measured in September. Industrial output expanded 4.9% year-over-year in October after having grown by 6.5% a month earlier. (CNBC)
• Thu Chinese consumers spent 14.2% more on Singles’ Day this year compared to 2024. And while that’s a strong growth rate, it’s a significant slowdown from last year’s 26.6% year-over-year increase measured last year. (CNBC)
• Fri The Trump administration removed tariffs on a long list of products including coffee, bananas, beef, and chocolate in an attempt to lower the cost of living and help out struggling low-income consumers in the US. (CNBC)
• Fri The US and Switzerland made a new trade agreement that will lower tariffs to 15%. As part of the deal, Swiss companies have also committed to invest around $200 billion in the US by the end of 2028. (CNBC)
• Fri UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has reportedly scrapped plans to increase income tax rates. The report caused a spike in bond yields while stocks turned lower. (CNBC)
• Sat A report released by the US Government Ethics Office concluded that former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler broke the central bank’s rules regarding stock trading in 2024. Kugler suddenly and surprisingly resigned from the Fed board three months ago after just two years in the job, leading to speculation of something more going on beneath the surface. (CNBC)

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Other

• Tue SoftBank sold its entire Nvidia stake for $5.83 billion. (CNBC)
• Tue AMD CEO Lisa Su provided a bullish outlook at the company’s first investor day in three years, saying they expect 35% annual sales growth driven by “insatiable” AI demand. The stock rallied 9% on Wednesday and is now up more than 100% year-to-date. (CNBC)
• Wed Anthropic said it will launch a $50 billion AI infrastructure build-out project in the US. (CNBC)
• Thu Just days after pressing his short on Nvidia, Palantir, and other AI leaders, news broke that Michael Burry is (again) shutting down his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management. He acknowledged in a letter to investors that he’s been out of sync with the market and unable to make sensible investment decisions for a while. (Reuters)
• Thu Mira Murati’s Thinking Machines Lab is reportedly in early talks to raise a new funding round at a $50 billion valuation, more than a quadrupling from July. It’s an impressive valuation for any startup, let alone one without revenue or a product. (Reuters)
• Fri Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a $4.3 billion stake in Alphabet as of the end of Q3, making it the 10th largest position in its portfolio. Despite cutting its Apple stake by 15%, it’s still the largest Berkshire holding at a value of $60 billion. (CNBC)
• Fri Walmart announced that CEO Doug McMillon will retire in January after nearly 12 years in the role. The company’s US CEO, John Furner, will take over McMillon’s role in February. (CNBC)
• Fri Apple is reportedly intensifying its succession planning for CEO Tim Cook who might step down as soon as next year. (Reuters)
• Fri Alphabet and Disney reached an agreement to restore content from ABC and ESPN on YouTube TV. (CNBC)

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Earnings

• Mon eToro got a boost from retail trader activity and beat estimates for Q3 profits. The stock surged 8.17% on Monday and another 9.3% on Tuesday, rebounding after hitting a record low on Friday. (Reuters)
• Wed Cisco reported $1 in earnings per share on $14.88 billion in revenue, both slightly above expectations. The company’s guidance for the current quarter and full year also exceeded forecasts. Shares jumped 4.62% after the report and 9.75% for the week. (CNBC)
• Wed Sneaker brand On reported a massive earnings beat, making 47 cents per share vs 25 cents expected. The company also raised its guidance again. Shares surged 18% after the report on Wednesday but are still down 33% from the January peak. (CNBC)
• Thu Disney’s revenue came in below forecast while earnings beat expectations. Ad revenue in its linear TV business continued to decline while Disney+ added 3.8 million new subscribers, now totaling 131.6 million. The stock plummeted 7.75% on Thursday after the report and has basically been dead money for a decade aside from its short-lived post-covid rally. (CNBC)